1. Browns - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming
-- I think the Browns are legit in the no "QB competition, Tyrod is the starter" thing, in which case you take the highest potential. I also believe the hype that this is the QB John Dorsey likes as he fits that profile. His plus frame and mobility paired with a canon arm should fit into Haley's offense in a Roethlisberger-esque way after having Tyrod play for a year so Allen is ready.
2. Giants - Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State
-- Zeke made the Cowboys relevant when they should have had to go through a rebuild. Barkley could bridge the late-stage Eli period to a new QB eventually while keeping the team from a rebuild stage.
3. Jets - Sam Darnold, QB USC
-- Jets grab their QB. Outside of turnovers and a strange scheme, Darnold should be the top QB. Jets have to fear the Browns making this choice, or the Giants allowing a team to pay the price to make this choice, but if the Browns are the Browns and the Giants under Gettleman allow to telegraph their plan (everyone knew McCafferey @8 last year, and Barkley at the Barbershop in Giants gear could be a Gettleman leak || plus McCafferey @8 is a move that shows a GM that would be comfortable with Barkley @2).
4. Browns - This is the for sale pick. The Browns can list the first pick for sale arguing there are 4 QBs worth building a franchise around and they have the first and fourth, but in reality they have to like someone and they do not like, want or are willing to take Rosen. They can't afford to sell #1, then have the Giants (or trade partner) and Jets take Darnold and Allen and be left with Mayfield (who fans may reject for bogus Manziel comps) or Rosen. By making trade negotiations open though, the Giants have less leverage in selling #2 as teams can't be sure "their guy" will be there, which increases the likelyhood the Giants stay put and sell themselves higher on Barkley who is worth the investment regardless and shouldn't be a hard sell internally for the Giants. This then gives the Browns their top choice at QB, and then they can sell the fourth pick, after the Jets take QB2, to the top bidder for Rosen, Mayfield or less likely Jackson. Here Rosen is the ultimate Broncos prospect, and the Broncos pick 5th. I foresee a 49ers/Bears Trubiski/Thomas, or Vikings/Browns Richardson/Kalil type trade occuring. That is a one move up and get your guy in exchange moving up/down one spot and a third and fourth round pick.
4. Broncos - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA
-- Rosen is the Broncos man. If you look and compare reports and actions, the Broncos brought Rosen in for a second day meeting with the Broncos team President/CEO, something other prospects did not receive. The way Keenum is structured is similar to how Glennon was for the Bears, as a bridge. Rosen to the Broncos is the hype trade/splash pick people expect in the first few picks, but it happens here at the 4th pick.
5. Browns - Minak Fitzpatrick, DB Alabama
-- Listing as a defensive back instead of a corner, because I could see him transitioning down the line to FS. I feel as if the massive need of the Browns for corners who can play man coverage demands he starts as a man coverage boundary corner though. This is a player target of the 49ers, and Raiders, and potentially others which negates the potential of a Bills trade to #4 if Fitzpatrick is the target (as the 49ers and Raiders pick 9th and 10th). The Colts as well have a hole at cornerback, so the Broncos trade is the most safe strategy for their GM to get "his guys" compared to the trade down and collect potential which has been the prior regimes strategy.
6. Colts - Looking at the 7th pick with the Buccaneers, the Buccs are excited they get a shot at Bradley Chubb or Quenton Nelson, both extreme needs. The Colts however have similar needs for protection and pass rush, as well as a host of other issues. To address a host of issues, they can sell the rights to select the fourth QB -- Mayfield. The Dolphins (Tannehill) and Bills (McCarron) are candidates and select 11th and 12th, and the Cardinals at 16th also could address the position as they have Bradford. This creates a market, and the Colts could see a talent deprived team and a trade opportunity to reload instead of investing in a guard or 4-3 DE. The Bills have too many needs (LT, G and C left; LB is an issue) to surrender both of their firsts -- therefore I think the Dolphins win the compensation battle for the 6th pick even with Tannehill being structured to be the QB this year and next.
6. Dolphins - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma. Tannehill was inherited, but they are committed to him in 2018 and 2019 with a restructure creating dead money otherwise. That is irrelevant when a coach and prospect "get" each other like Gase and Mayfield -- especially when the position is QB and Gase is a QB guru.
7. Buccaneers - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State. It's Chubb or Nelson and the positional value (and the Buccs complete lack of talent a the position) that declares Chubb is the pick.
8. Bears - Quenton Nelson, G Notre Dame. They released Josh Sitton, so the need for Guard is there. Harry Hiestand, the Bears new OL coach, was Nelson's coach at Notre Dame. The familiarity here is unparalleled compared to other teams thinking "guard in the top 10"?
9. 49ers - Derwin James, SS FSU. John Lynch showed that he selects best prospect available over need when he took Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster last year. Here Derwin James can play SS which transitions to dime LB in subpackages. This keeps Malcolm Smith off the field, who was injured but otherwise a desperate likely-bust signing anyways. It's James' versatility that fits what the 49ers are going for. Thomas was a five or three technique end or tackle. Foster a strong side or middle linebacker. James can cover the slot, play deep or match up as a subpackage linebacker to stave off TEs and pass catching running backs. Eric Reid played this sort of role last year, and James takes it next year.
10. Raiders - The Raiders have needs and they are amplified by Donald Penn's injury and a new coaching staff putting his brand on the team. Meanwhile the Cardinals, Patriots and Bills are lurking with Jackson on the board. Sneakily the Ravens, too, could be in play for Lamar Jackson as Flacco has struggled and they signed RG3 to a one year deal possibly indicating interest in shifting to a mobile QB offense under the next GM's reign (Ozzie Newsome is stepping down next year). Here I see the Raiders options, for trade, being the Bills involving pick 12, the Patriots involving 23 and 31, the Cardinals with 15 and the Ravens with 16. I think the allure of 15 or 16 is greater than 12 as the range is similar with the second tier of prospects being available, but the Raiders could squeeze a higher additional pick.
10. Ravens - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville. Ozzie Newsome has had an awesome career, and his last first round pick could be the Ravens next face of the franchise allowing his legacy to extend beyond his career. Jackson does not have to be thrown into action with Flacco being fine. However he can develop alongside RG3 for the summer to adjust to becoming the next mobile superstar at QB. Once Flacco puts up his 3400 yards and 20 TDs again, the Ravens can move on in 2019 with a developed Jackson transforming their offense and having the Flacco money to retool instead of being constantly hampered by his contract when he isn't the reason they win (outside of the SB run year in the playoffs). The Ravens previously flirted with potentially signing Kaepernick but didn't want the off the field. Jackson can be the mobile face for 2019.
11. Colts - Roquan Smith, LB Georgia. The Colts love this guy, and he fits.
12. Bills - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame. Womp womp, they didn't seal the deal for a QB. That's alright though as they lost so three offensive lineman and signed AJ McCarron. Not overpaying for a QB allows the Bills to actually address needs. The first of which should be the offensive line and the highest rated positionally and talent wise remaining is McGlinchey at LT.
13. Redskins - Daron Payne, DT Alabama. The Redskins fill a big need at defensive tackle while reuniting last years first round pick Jonathan Allen with his former college teammate Daron Payne.
14. Packers - Harold Landry, Edge Boston College. The Packers address edge rusher with a guy coming off a down year, but featuring great bend and entering the year looked to be the next DE to go #1.
15. Cardinals - Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State. I think the Cardinals have realized the corner opposite Patrick Peterson is the most difficult position to play on their team as he is so often targeted. Here that position gets addressed with one of the best players remaining on the board.
16. Raiders - Marcus Davenport, Edge UTSA. Davenport has high upside athletically, but his level of competition and the general "raw" aspect of his game drop him. The Raiders can craft him into a compliment for Khalil Mack though and Reggie has a history of gambling on guys (Mack from Buffalo, Hayden from Houston, Karl Joseph was considered a reach).
17. Chargers - Vita Vea, NT Washington. The Chargers consider Tremaine Edmunds here, but select Vita Vea. They will look towards a combo of SLB and NT in the first two rounds and I believe the second round target is Uchenna Nwosu.
18. Seahawks - The Seahawks have this pick and then pick 120, and I think they would be comfortable selecting here had Marcus Davenport been available. With him gone, I see the Seahawks putting a for sale sign on this pick and the Patriots biting with pick 23 to leap the Bills.
18. Patriots - Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State. This is my favorite QB in the draft and if you watch his interviews he has Patriot written all over him. The main concern is arm strength, which can be developed in an NFL weight room while being groomed behind Brady (who also was not originally known for arm strength, neither was Brissett or Garropolo).
19. Cowboys - Courtland Sutton, WR SMU. SMU is in Dallas, and Sutton is a Cowboys fan. More relevant is Sutton is 6'3" where the other top receivers, Ridley and Kirk, are 6'0 and 5'10 respectively. I think Sutton is the Dez replacement.
20. Lions - Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech. Patrica gets a Jaime Collins type LB, someone so versatile it is hard to find their potential, but Patrica unlocked Collins in NE. Here he gets to try his hand with Edmunds.
21. Bengals - James Daniels, C Iowa. Daniels is a long young athletic center that rivaled Billy Price as the top center in the draft prior to Price's injury. As it stands Daniels is atop the center rankings and is valued between the mid-late first and mid-second round. The demand for Daniels services will push him closer to the top of that range though. The Bengals have a massive interior hole with the departure of Zeitler, but also have issues outside as well. Daniels can play both center and guard and would also rank highly on the Bills board at the next pick. The Bengals have brought Daniels in for a visit, so interest is there.
22. Bills - Mike White, QB Western Kentucky. After drama of the Bills not making the splash move for a QB, the Bills select Mike White to develop behind AJ McCarron. It is after some booing that ESPN and NFL Network will mention that Mike White has prostyle experience, a strong arm and consistent accuracy.
23. Seahawks - Joshua Jackson, CB Iowa. Great ball skills with size and excels in cover 3 zone, this is the Seahawk corner in this draft class. With releasing Sherman, the Seahawks need to address CB to pair with Shaquill Griffin. With questionable speed at the combine, Jackson allows the Seahawks to trade down to grab him making it a win win.
24. Panthers - Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama. The Panthers continue to remake their offense. Here the Panthers select one of the best players available in Calvin Ridley who excels in what Kelvin Benjamin did not -- separation. Ridley fits as a productive technician working opposite Funchess, who has size, and Samuel, who has elite speed.
25. Titans - Arden Key, DE LSU. Arden Key has issues, but also has talent. He is the most Randy Gregory type player in the class, but although Gregory busted Key isn't necessarily doomed to bust. Key could be a top 5 pick, but teams have lowered him on their boards, and I assume someone will still select him in the first round. I have the Titans doing so as they have expressed interest in him bringing him in for a visit, as well as potentially being the best fit. Schematically it works, but also Key isn't asked to rush into being in prime football shape to carry the full load right away with Orakpo and Morgan ahead of him. However he would be able to contribute as each is aging and they could act as good mentors to the young Key looking for guidance.
26. Falcons - Taven Bryan, DL Florida. Taven Bryan is compared to JJ Watt, but lacks Watt's consistency. When Bryan is going it's excellent and very elite, but it isn't always "on". He is also from I believe Wyoming, and was very raw entering college so further coaching is necessary. Bryan's upside is great though and he fits what the Falcons are doing.
27. Saints -Hayden Hurst, TE South Carolina. The Saints fired on all cylinders when they had a dynamic running game and dynamic TE in the past. With Kamara complimenting Ingram last year the dynmic run game reemerged, and with drafting Hurst, the TE is back after years of a bust signing in Colby Fleener.
28. Steelers - Leighton Vander Esch, LB, Boise State. A one year wonder, but an athletic option at LB who was ultra productive. He fills the gap created by injury at MLB.
29. Jaguars - Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame. St. Brown struggled due to poor QB play, but has elite traits. Here he fits into the void created by Robinson and Hurns leaving. This selection gives Blake Bortles a final chance to succeed, and if not allow for a high upside WR to be present for the next QB.
30. Vikings - Isiah Wynn, OG Georgia. Wynn is an undersized left tackle, and a great one at that. His size will press him inside, and the Vikings could use his physicality to add to their run game with should improve naturally with Dalvin Cook returning as well. With this pick, Cousins should find great success with improved protection with a talented supporting players.
31. Patriots - Sony Michel, RB Georgia. Sony comes in to give the Patriots the semi-feature back. He primarily is a larger replacement for Dion Lewis, but will act as the primary back over Rex Burkhead. With Brady aging and the grooming of an heir apparent in Rudolph, the Patriots need to secure a premier running game.
32. Eagles - Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama. Evans enters the Champion Eagles and improves their linebacking corps. His ability to blitz and spy QBs and RBs will be useful especially behind the Eagles DL.
