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Thread: Mlb 2020

  1. #21

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    It's hard to see it unless he really crushes aaa

  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spencer 555 View Post
    It's hard to see it unless he really crushes aaa
    I misread ur 2019 comment, I think ur probably right about that. I was a little too conservative projecting 2020.

    But I think I was on the right track that the Yankees will be conservative with torres. He's a prospect I think who you don't want becoming polished in the bigs like Swanson. The Yankees wanna win now. He will absolutely have to force his way on the team.

  3. #23

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    I initially thought that Mike Trout expired in 2019 which is why I wanted to do the Phillies for 2020, but I decided to do them anyway with a set-up into 2021.

    2020 Philadelphia Phillies

    Position Players

    C: Jorge Alfaro (pre-arb; 500K).

    1B: Rhys Hoskins (pre-arb; 800K? maybe 1st year arb roughly 3.9 mil). Rhys stumbles out the gate in 2018, but finds himself as a more consistent slugger in 2019 and establishes himself as a .265/35-40 type slugger by the end of 2020. Carlos Santana (20.8 Mil) served as a solid piece for two years, and still serves a role in 2020, but far more talented and athletic players in the Phillies OF start to push Santana out of the line-up altogether. Plus, with his expiring money and the team set on Free Agency, Santana is a piece being phased out while Rhys takes over at First Base in 2020. I do believe Santana gets some situational play however. The strength of this line-up is, primarily, right handed so having Santana batting Switch will help offset the lack of left handed power in the line-up.

    2B: Scott Kingery (pre-arb; 500K). Kingery establishes himself as a decent hitter in limited action in 2018 before becoming either the team's full time 2B or a rotational Zobrist type player in 2019. For simplicity I have him as the full time 2B. A .270+ hitter who can threaten 20/20 in the middle infield.

    SS: JP Crawford (pre-arb; 500K). As a prospect, Crawford has experienced a bit of a fall from grace. The bat may just not be that good, but for my future Phillies, JP Crawford is the projected 7-8 hitter who has an excellent glove at Shortstop. Projecting a .240 BA with little power but a good walk rate that also helps make the batting stats stomach-able, alongside again that great glove.

    3B: So I don't like Maikel Franco, and aside from Kingery whom I already have at 2B there's no obvious in house option here. I thought about going with a potential Free Agent, like having them get someone like Moose or Donaldson next year, but I went with a bit more of a creative take. Entering his first year of arbitration, the always poor A's and the always dealing Billy Beane send Matt Chapman to the Phillies in exchange for prospects and cash. Chapman is a decent hitter who doesn't hit for a great average, but he provides power and he shores up a plus-infield defense with JP Crawford. Chapman will earn 2.7 million in his first year of arb.

    OF: Mickey Moniak (pre-arb), Odubel Herrera (7 Mill), Aaron Altherr (2nd year arb, 3.7 mil), Nick Williams (pre-arb), Dylan Cozens (pre-arb), Adam Haseley (pre-arb) --
    So I decided to tackle the OF as a whole, and listed a few names, highlighting the ones I thought most likely to be on the roster. Mickey Moniak doesn't crack the opening day roster in 2020, but he's my most likely player out of all the listed names to finish 2020 on the Phillies 25/40 Man Roster. Odubel Herrera is my second most likely, because of the obvious long term commitment they've made to him. I'm not completely sold on Odubel's talents as a hitter though. But he's a solid player with solid defensive skills who's under contract for at least this year and 2021, with options for 2022 and 2023. Altherr's a guy I like and think it'll be easy for the Phillies to keep him around at least until he hits Free Agency at worst as a role player. Haseley is another player who perhaps doesn't make the Phillies opening Day roster in 2020, but drafted as a seemingly high-floor College Bat at #8 Overall in the 2017 draft, Haseley should be a solid and MLB-ready hitter by 2020. The primary alignment will be based around platooning, with Altherr getting a bit phased out v. RHP but getting all the PT v. LHP. Altherr still gets some PT over Moniak and Haseley because of being the relative veteran and them being young players. Also keep in mind the idea is we're adding Mike Trout to the equation next year.

    Alternates are Nick Williams, who is solid, but I don't like the plate discipline and think if the Phillies were to trade any of the above pieces, Williams would be the most likely. I like Dylan Cozens and think he could be a situational 1B/OF who plays primarily against just RHP. Not the greatest player, but every player pre-arb is practically free for 3 years, so I could see the Phillies bringing up Cozens any time in the next couple years as a cheap power LH player to start v. RHP.

    Starting Rotation:

    SP1: Jake Arrieta (20 Mil) -- Arrieta may have not gotten quite the lettuce he was expecting, Arrieta is still a borderline SP1 who has been both healthy and maintained a solid level of success, albeit much less success than his peak. He keeps himself healthy and will still be an asset as an Opening Day starter in 2020. One important note, the Phillies front-loaded Arrieta to go after other players. 30/25/20 the first three years of this deal. That's worth noting for an actual non-hypothetical projection of the team. Another fact worth noting about the deal, there are points where both Jake and Philly can exit. In this scenario, they both feel the contract is mutually beneficial (which I actually think is somewhat reasonable, but he is a Boras client), and Jake lives out all 5 years of the Philly contract.

    SP2: Aaron Nola -- A pitcher I absolutely love, Nola has had some health issues. These health issues allow the Phillies to take a chance at getting a talented potential SP1 at a bargain, signing him prior to the 2019 season to a 5 year, 43.5 Mill contract with escalators. This is a somewhat similar timeline to the Kluber extension, which was 5/38.5, but with Nola's first year being his first Arbitration year (real money) and Kluber's being his last pre-Arb year, which adjusted his payout from 500K to 1Mil for that season-- but a reasonable extension for both team and player, as Nola gets guaranteed money and the team gets a good player at a bargain. The second year of the contract pays out 7.5 Mill.

    SP3: Jimmy Nelson (3rd year arb, 8.8 Mill) -- Another surprise on this list, after missing most of the 2018 season with a shoulder injury, Nelson bounces back to have a good but not great contract year in 2019, with an 8 K/9 and a 3.55 ERA in a tough ball park and division. With one year left of team control, Milwaukee decides that Nelson's question marks and potential price in 2021 make him a tradable piece, and Philly swoops in with an offer of a couple of prospects. Unable to come to a long term agreement, Nelson enters free agency seeking upwards of 100 Million. However, he struggles to find a market for a 9 digit contract and, with the acquisition of Mike Trout in hand, re-signs with the Phillies for a discounted 5 years 80 million covering his age 31 through 35 seasons.

    SP4: Sixto Sanchez (pre-arb) -- A 19 YO hot shot in the Phillies organization, Sixto has the name and the big league fastball to believe that he can reach the bigs as a potential impact pitcher in 2020.

    SP5: Jerad Eickhoff (2nd year arb, 5.5 Mil) -- Eickhoff may be nothing special to write home about, but a solid pitcher with a solid curveball, Eickhoff will be 29 years old at this time in 2020, and he'll still have two years of team control left. A solid SP5.

    Closer: Hector Neris is the potentially obvious answer here, but since the relief pitchers change the most in baseball, I"m going to go with a current starter in the Phillies organization that is struggling and that I think could make an excellent super-reliever, and that's Vincent Velasquez. He may be entering arbitration by this point, but woudnt' be more than 1-2 million.

    Payroll:
    Santana 20.8 Mill
    Arrieta 20.0 Mill
    Nelson 8.8 Mill
    Nola 7.5 Mill
    Herrera 7 Mill
    Eickhoff 5.5 Mill
    Hoskins 3.9 Mill*
    Altherr 3.7 Mill
    Chapman 2.7 Mill
    Velasquez 1.3 Mill

    Base Payroll: 80.2 Million, which is still pretty low for a potential big market team.

    Potential year end line-up combinations

    v. RHP:
    1. Moniak
    2. Haseley
    3. Hoskins
    4. Santana
    5. Chapman
    6. Kingery
    7. Crawford
    8. Alfaro

    v. LHP
    1. Moniak
    2. Kingery
    3. Hoskins
    4. Chapman
    5. Haseley
    6. Altherr
    7. Crawford
    8. Alfaro

    *I'm not sure on the Service time for Hoskins and how that'll work. To be conservative I took 2020 as his first arbitration year and not his last pre-arb year.

    This moves us into...

    Phase 2: Mike Trout, 2021, and a WS Ring

    Trout, after spending nearly a decade playing on the West Coast and for a team that couldn't quite put together a playoff run (though I love what Eppler's doing right now), Trout moves back to the east coast, signing a 10 Year, 375 Million dollar contract to join the Phillies. While the price is steep, the player is elite, and the books are made well enough that it shoudln't be a problem at all to add it to the mix, especially with Santana coming off the books.

    Obviously this displaces a lot of talent in the outfield, with Moniak and Haseley the former first round picks getting the majority of the work in Center and Right while Trout moves over to Left for the Phillies. Odubel, still making 10 Million, is the primary fourth-OF. Altherr is moved.

    In the infield, Chapman and Hoskins get an arbitration raise, and Crawford and Kingery (as well as Alfaro) enter arbitration, making the infield increase quite steep. Still, the payroll last year was very low, and Philly can afford high payrolls on a competitive team with Mike Trout.

    The Rotation sticks together. Arrieta is a year older but still solid, and with a solid post season career, Nola and Nelson as the main rotational strength behind him, and Vincent Velasquez as an ultra reliever/closer, the Phillies pull out the 2021 WS championship.

    2021 Payroll
    Trout 37.5 Mill
    Arrieta 20.0 Mill
    Nelson 13.5 Mill
    Herrera 10 Mill
    Nola 9.5 Mill
    Eickhoff 7.3 Mill
    Hoskins 6.6 Mill*
    Chapman 4.1 Mill
    Velasquez 3.4 Mill
    Kingery 3.1 Mill
    Crawford 1.9 Mill
    Alfaro 1.7 Mill

    Base Payroll: 118.6 Mill. A steep single year increase, but an Owner approved one bringing in a super star in Mike Trout. This team has the rotational depth, top end reliever, hitting, and defense to win a World Series.

    Base Line-Up:
    1. Moniak
    2. Haseley / Kingery (Hase v. R, King v. L)
    3. Trout
    4. Hoskins
    5. Haseley / Kingery (Inverse)
    6. Chapman
    7. Alfaro
    8/9. Crawford

    I think the Phillies are one of the more fun teams to do.

  4. #24

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    A hypothetical but not too crazy way the Phillies could put it over the top? If Arenado reaches Free Agency in 2020, I do believe the Phillies are a big enough market and a willing enough spender to add another massive contract to the payroll I designed, so putting an elite player like that on this roster would really seal the deal. But overall I think this team would have enough gusto to do it. The top of the line-up, top of the rotation, and top reliever are all theoretically scary.

  5. #25

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    Ya I could see a scenario like that happening, by 2020 the usual suspects will be pretty capped. Philly will have an opportunity for sure.

  6. #26

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    The only thing wrong with your 2021 coverage is trout goes to the braves and joins rising superstar Ronald Acuņa and beloved Freddie Freeman to form the most terrifying 234/345 in baseball and the braves actually win the WS with only hitting, a complete opposite of what the 90s braves we're famous for.

  7. #27

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    Also, marez and specer, look into Out Of the Park Baseball on steam. You'll jizz yourselves and thank me later.

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sanosuke View Post
    Also, marez and specer, look into Out Of the Park Baseball on steam. You'll jizz yourselves and thank me later.

    I play OOTP a lot.

    I just don't see Trout going anywhere but LA or the Northeast.

  9. #29

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    I'm going to be playing ootp 18 in Afghanistan to kill time. Started out as the Rome Braves manager. Gonna try to work my way up. It's so in depth I get lost at times.

    Trout won't go to Atlanta, but that'd be nice if he did.

  10. #30

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    Ya I've been told it's aweosme. Can I get it on my phone?

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