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Thread: Spencer's Annual Draft Analysis

  1. #1

    Default Spencer's Annual Draft Analysis

    Round 1

    Best Value: Mike Trout - Sano
    Obvious pick I know, but I’m not just being lazy. Trout is the best player in baseball by quite a substantial amount and that’s no different in our league. Combining 40+ homer power with ELITE plate discipline, trout continues to grow and evolve as a player. I wouldn’t bet against him hitting 50 bombs one day and I’m hoping we all get to witness his greatness this year.

    Worst Value: Charlie Blackmon – Hulky
    The skillset isn’t a big problem for the second pick in the draft, but I did think there were better picks to be made who play more premium positions (3b, 2b, SS). My main concern is that the Rockies will take a step back this year as a team and they might want to deal Blackmon before the trade deadline. Unfortunately for Blackmon, he has the greatest value of any tradeable player on the rockies and the rockies have a glut of young position players who want to play his position in the minors. I could see the rockies moving him this year, and blackmon’s value will in turn crater without the help of coors.

    Runner up: Nolan Arenado – Gypsy

    Round 2

    Best Value: Freddie Freeman – Sano
    Last year, the braves switched stadiums to a more hitter friendly park. I was extremely high on Freeman because of this and he was proving me right until a fluke injury derailed his season. Freeman, younger then votto, is in the prime of his career and has displayed batted ball improvements almost every year of his career. There is potential in his profile to hit well into the .300 average due to his plate discipline, lack of strikeouts and lack of popups, while also launching 40+ bombs in his new park. I love freeman and at pick 20 this was a steal.

    Worst Value: Trea Turner – Midgebino
    You’ll probably notice a trend in my draft recaps: steals are not valuable in our league. We should rename it “Chicks dig the long ball”. That said, I wouldn’t change this fact. I don’t think steals should be nearly as valuable a stat as they are in most fantasy leagues. Trea Turner is a burner. His value on the ESPN rankings is almost entirely due to the fact that he could steal 50+ bases. But that profile doesn’t work in this league. Turner should be a top 5 SS regardless, but I would have much preferred Bregman who was picked way later.

    Runner Up: Paul Goldschmidt – Veil

    Round 3

    Best Value: Noah Syndergaard – Hulky
    I had a hard time making this the best value pick. I liked the Donaldson, Martinez, Ramirez and Rizzo picks in this round, but those are all players I’d have drafted where they were drafted. Every one of those picks was a good value for this round. But a healthy Syndergaard is the best pitcher in baseball IMO. Call this a bold prediction, but I think Syndergaard will outperform Kershaw this year and return hulky a round 1 value. I didn’t take Syndergaard in the second round because I wanted the “safety” of kluber as my ace, but in terms of potential, I think Syndergaard has the highest ceiling of any player in this league. Let’s hope we get to see him stay healthy!

    Worst Value: Jacob Degrom – Veil
    Not a bad pick by any means, but I think I would have preferred to take JD Martinez or Gary Sanchez at this point. As much as I love punting catcher, Sanchez is a real 2.5+ ppg player and is that much better than the rest of the league’s catchers that he could be considered a steal here. Degrom was arguably the best pitcher available here, so I think veil is just a victim of circumstance. Everyone made a good pick in this round. CHEERS!

    Runner up: Josh Donaldson – ME

    Round 4

    Best Value: Jose Abreu – I’ma
    Year after year, Abreu puts up a 300 avg with 30 bombs. At this point in the draft, to get a bat this big without any questions asked is a steal. Justin Upton with his injury history, Cody Bellinger with his youth and Severino with his overhyped Yankees-ness were all in consideration here for best value but I went with the safe bet. Hopefully he can get some help this year from his teammates in the R/RBI department.

    Worst Value: Craig Kimbrel – Gryph
    There is no denying Kimbrel is one of the best closers in baseball, but to take him over Kenley AND this early was a bit of a reach imo. I understand the logic here, in wanting to ensure that you get one of the 2 top guys, but guys like Raisel Iglesias and Felipe Rivero were still available in round 10 who will provide similar value. I think you could have easily waited another round before getting Kimbrel and gotten another SP (Ray, Carrasco, Verly, Sevvy??) or bat (Abreu, Bellinger, Upton??) here.

    Runner up: Luis Severino – Mistretta

    Round 5

    Best Value: Carlos Carrasco – Gypsy
    The round of the SP! Almost everyone in this round got their SP1 or 2 locked in. Was honestly very surprised to see that Carrasco had dropped this far to an auto draft team because I was pretty high on Carrasco coming into the draft. His injury history is kinda checkered, but in terms of talent level, the only pitcher in this round who rivals him is Verlander, and I’ll take the younger player everytime in a tie breaker.

    Worst Value: Dee Gordon – Dino
    See Trae Turner. Dee is basically Turner light, with even less power, at a worst position and on a worst team. Dee is MAYBE a 10th round pick in our league.

    Runner up: Justin Verlander – Hulky

    Round 6:

    Best Value: Alex Bregman – Gryph
    I hinted at this earlier, but I was very high on Bregman coming into this draft. Taking Correa and Donaldson early forced me to focus my attention elsewhere, but I had Bregman in my late 3rd early 4th round. I think there is potential here to be a top 3 SS in this league and that’s probably the most valuable position because of the “shallowness” of it. SS isn’t as shallow as it once was, but I consider it the most shallow position and that matters in our league.

    Worst Value: Buster Posey – Hulky
    Again, hinted at this earlier, I enjoy punting catcher in this league. The reason for that is because you literally can get away with not playing a position every single day of a week and still maxing out your batters per week. The catcher position is by far the shallowest position in our league because sanchez is pretty much the only catcher worth owning before the 10th round. I think Posey is a solid player, don’t get me wrong, but there were much better bats available here and posey won’t produce more then 2ppg with the lineup that surrounds him.

    Runner up: Marcell Ozuna – I’ma

    Round 7:

    Best Value: Daniel Murphy - ME
    Proven to be a 300+ hitter with some pop at the 2b position, I had murphy valued as a 5th rounder in our league. His injury is a bit concerning, but there isn’t much of a reason not to draft him in 10 team head to head and stash him on the DL for waiver wire fun times. The potential for a 2.5ppg player is very real and that makes him a steal here.

    Worst Value: Elvis Andrus – Gypsy
    Last year, Andrus surprised us by more than doubling his career high in home runs. Andrus breakout party!? No. As I’ve stated before, this profile (speed, batting average) doesn’t really work well in this league and Andrus likely will return to being a sub 10 homer player this year. In the round of the middling SS, I would have preferred Trevor Story or Didi Gregorious.

    Runner up: Nelson Cruz – I’ma

    Round 8

    Best Value: Jose Quintana – Midgebino
    Quintana had a bit of a down year last year, but he is consistently one of the most underrated SPs in the game year over year. After his trade to the cubs last year, Quintana went right back to putting up the underrated numbers that made him an excellent value in drafts the last few years. A solid SP2 for any team, Quintana for the first time in his career, will play with an above average defense patrolling the field behind him and I think he will win 20 games with a low 3s era. I considered Nola and Wood for the most value here, but Quintana has the highest floor of the 3 imo.

    Worst Value: DJ Lemahieu – Sano
    I was pretty high on Lemahieu heading into last year, because I saw some signs of him having a breakout in the power department. But he was going much too early for my tastes. I had him valued more as a 10th round player and he was going in the 7th or 8th. That is happening again this year, and I’m less optimistic that power is going to be added to his profile. Coors will make things interesting, and I actually like Lemahieu more than Gordon and Andrus, but I think there are still better 2b available that will be drafted later.

    Runner Up: Aaron Nola – Gryph

    Round 9

    Best Value: Miguel Sano – I’ma
    I’ma big believer in Sano. He has a similar profile to Judge and honestly, you could make an argument that you liked Sano more. He strikes out a ton, sure, but I think the real issue here with him is health. I think his health is a real concern at this point, because he hasn’t shown an ability to stay on the field his entire career and well… he’s kinda fat. If he committed more to a conditioning program and showed he could stay on the field more, I think he could eventually hit 50+ bombs, but that day may never come. Dream on his upside with me!

    Worst Value: Jean Segura – Gryph
    We’re getting to the point where these guys are kinda worth owning, but we’re not quite at that point just yet. I wouldn’t bank on Segura being a 2ppg player and at this point in the draft, there are still plenty of guys like that up for grabs. You can easily get a guy like Javier Baez from the cubs a couple rounds later who has a similar floor and much higher upside.

    Runner up: Yoenis Cespedes – Gypsy

    Round 10

    Best Value: Rich Hill – Gypsy
    Pretty good for a team that I think got autodrafted!? It’s pretty shameful that we let VAGINA HANDS HIMSELF slip this far. But I get it. He’s 38 years old and has a long history of sitting on the bench due to blisters. But in terms of avg ppg, Rich Hill was an ace the last few years in this league. I wouldn’t bank on him starting more than 25 games again, but the talent is there to win you a championship if he pitches in our playoffs! Great Value.

    Worst Value: Billy Hamilton – Veil
    I’m led to believe this was an autopick, but even so, I probably would have left Hamilton undrafted in our league. OF is too deep to be messing around with a player who’s entire value is tied to steals. Unless some sort of major breakthrough happens, Hamilton is a flop in our league.

    Runner up: Raisel Iglesias – Sano

  2. #2

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    Rounds 11-22 will simply be valuations with no write up.

  3. #3

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    Round 11

    Best Value: Travis Shaw – Sano

    Worst Value: N/A All good picks

    Runner up: Sonny Gray – Gypsy

    Round 12

    Best Value: Wade Davis – I’ma

    Worst Value: Brian Mccann – Mistretta

    Runner up: Ronald Acuna – Sano

    Round 13

    Best Value: Rafael Devers – I’ma

    Worst Value: Eric Thames – ME! Lol

    Runner up: Alex Colome - Veil

    Round 14

    Best Value: David Price – ME!

    Worst Value: N/A all good picks

    Runner up: Carlos Santana – Midge

    Round 15

    Best Value: Matt Carpenter – Midge

    Worst Value: Sal Perez – I’ma

    Runner up: Eduardo Nunez – Hulky

    Round 16

    Best Value: Kyle Seager – Gryph

    Worst Value: Brett Gardiner – Mistretta

    Runner up: Marcus Stroman – ME!

    Round 17

    Best Value: Josh Bell – Gypsy

    Worst Value: N/A all good picks

    Runner up: Gregory Polanco – Mistretta

    Round 18

    Best Value: Aaron Sanchez – Gryph

    Worst Value: Steven Souza – Dino

    Runner up: Justin Bour – Mistretta

    Round 19

    Best Value: Ian Kinsler – Gypsy

    Worst Value: N/A meh

    Runner up: Ozzie Albies – FOR THE HYPEBEAST

    Round 20

    Best Value: Austin Barnes – Veil

    Worst Value: David Robertson – Mistretta

    Runner up: JT Realmuto – Midge

    Round 21

    Best Value: N/A all bad picks lol

    Round 22

    Best Value: Zack Cozart – Gypsy

    Worst Value: N/A all good picks

    Runner up: Lucas Giolito - Veil

  4. #4

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    what does the runner up mean? Runner up worst value or best value?

  5. #5

  6. #6

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    acuna > wade davis

  7. #7

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    As hyped as I am for Acuna, things don't always go as planned for prospects. Imo round 12 is a bit early for lotto tickets, but acuna seems special so you could very well be right. I liked the Wade Davis pick because I think he's a safer bet to get 30+ saves with high ks then a few of the guys ahead of him. Only real knock on wad is coors imo, the talent is still there to be a top 5 closer in the league and he was drafted 11th I think. Bit of a steal.

  8. #8

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    I'll train u wiz don't worry

  9. #9

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    But Kimbrel is better. Hence why I got him before everyone bumrushed the closers, lol

    Baez had 1 good year *last year) and hasn't done anything but be a "eh, should I?" fantasy player since, before that he revolves around the hype of a top prospect pedigree lol as his K rate has climbed considerably since hes been called up. Comparing him to Segura despite having similar skillsets is kinda wrong, as Segura completely blows Baez' out of the water in terms of volume of playing time (more games and more PA) K% (28% compared to 15%) and contact% and Sb volume and less runs scored cause he bats lower in an NL lineup as opposed to Segura who is 2nd hole behind 3 25-40Hr hitters and has the benefit of Dee Gordon getting to 2nd and scoring on singles up the middle.

    Segura just does more, hence why I value him for higher for someone who does less and K's more.

    I value certain hitters based on what I currently have on my team, if Segura fell to me, and I know I can get Seager later on (which I did) then Segura's value jumps far more for me on my team as opposed to ADP simply because of the bonus points it'll come with because of both Dee Gordon and Seager in there with him. I go for consistency with upside, not value.

  10. #10

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    Thats all fair. For me with segura, im not confident with his year over year productivity. I think his 2017 season is a reasonable baseline projection, but I dont see much potential for him to be any better then that. With Baez, you have a player who has shown clear statistical improvements year over year with his bat. Sure the k% has gone up every year like you mentioned, but you cant discount his vastly improved walk rate and HR/FB spike last year. I still see more coming from baez, and at the discounted price, id take him over segura.

    I see what youre saying though. I didnt expect seager to be available in round 16. That value certainly offset any negative value here and I did point seager out as being a steal. And also, I did kinda mention that it wasnt SUCH a bad time to be taking segura, I just thought you could have waited an extra round or 2 knowing your fallback could be cozart or baez or paul dejong. I guess you got the safest pick of the bunch

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