Quote Originally Posted by Spencer 555 View Post
Lol I'm not trying to knock the dude, Marez. I just threw the Corbin comp out there because you made it sound like I was implying finesse pitchers weren't able to induce a lot of whiffs.

"And in terms of being a "finesse" pitcher, that's not really fair. His Whiff%'s have been great this year, and were great before his TJS in 2016 and after his TJS in 2017. Plenty of people liked him as a potential breakout back in 2016 same as Skaggs before he had TJS."

And Corbin is a prototypical finesse pitcher who induces a lot of whiffs.

I don't think I'm as low on Heaney as you think. I wasn't denying any of the stickiness to the peripheral number improvements, I just think the proneness to homers he's developed over the last couple years is a problem that hasn't reared its ugly head just yet this season. With a 40% grounder rate and near 40% hard hit rate, a couple more homers isnt really crazy to imagine. His launch angle and average exit velocity are way down from his career norms (2000+ pitches before 2018) despite not really changing anything (and despite players trying to hit the ball higher, vive la revolition). I dont buy that this is because of a tangible adjustment or improvement and I think these numbers will regress back to near his career norms pushing his era back into the 4 range.

My ROS projection would have Heaney finishing the year with an era just above 4 while maintaining his excellent k/9.
12% Pop-Up% this year too. I agree with you a bit on the regression in HR/FB and HR/9, don't get me wrong. I just dont' think it's going to be quite the recknoing you do. I think the Pop-Up% is another sign that he's learning how to pitch, particularly on the inside, in ways that doesn't give up numerous HRs.

My ROS projection for them would be closer to:


(these weren't really intentionally evenly split, but it ended up being pretty close so I evened up the split)
Skaggs: 3.40-3.60
Heaney: 3.60-3.80
Trop: 3.80-4.00