Firstly, I do kind of agree, especially on the names you threw out, but before I address that at all I just want to point out again that I'm not talking about grading Free Agency but the offseason first and foremost. To me, replacing Fox/Loggains/Staff with Nagy/Helfrich/Staff is likely to be a bigger and more meaningful change to me than anything personnel wise including signing A-Rob. If I could've chosen Nagy or ARob, I would've chosen Nagy.Originally Posted by bludhoundz
The Fox era has left a distinctive terrible taste in my mouth. I think he solidly earned himself the title of the worst Bears coach of all time, if not just in my lifetime. He was awful and you can't blame the team or anyone else around him. Fox was 1-7 I believe in games where the Bears were favored. He made gaffs on the field and in play calling constantly. He treated his cookie cutter game plans like they were top secret, and didn't trust the personnel that gave them success as a team.
The jury is still out on Nagy as a Head Coach obviously, but undeniably he was a hot commodity that chose the Bears for starters, and more prominently, I've been highly impressed with the staff Nagy was able to wrest away from the football world. He kept Fangio, who is very highly regarded in Chicago as a DC and was the DC under Harbaugh in SF, despite the regime change. He brought in the Oregon OC, ND OLine Coach, Browns ST Coordinator, as well as people like former HC Brad Childress as just a "Offensive Assistant" I believe. So I've been very satisfied with the Staff and think for the first time in my life this is a coach I really believe can be a Head Coach / EXECUTIVE that creates a winning environment.
In terms of holding a few TEs, they really only have Shaheen, who isn't ready to take on a full time role and really wasn't afforded PT by Fox, and Daniel Brown, who isn't making much money and is just bleh. The Burton deal is a risk and, like the McKinnon deal in SF, pays a player for what he could do but hasn't. Still, the deal is really only fully guaranteed or mostly guaranteed for 2018 and 2019. The Bears can opt-out before 2020 with only about 3.5 million in dead cap. In the NFL, you don't need to spend every penny, but sometimes it also seems pointless to leave money on the table. If the Burton deal goes south in 2018 and he's a slight albatross for one year in 2019, it is what it is. But realistically, other than this year that we've already passed Free Agency with numerous additions, it really only effects 2019 overall. So I'm satisfied with the deal as a risk, particularly because we are paying him to walk on the field and be the Starter.
I honestly think the bigger angle from this isn't Burton at all-- it's Shaheen, what the Bears are planning on with him, and if you think that the Burton move means that the Bears are shying away from their 2nd round pick in 2017. I think Shaheen still has talent and I think Fox was a moron to not get him more seasoning last year, but again overall he isn't ready to make that step, and if he struggles making it in 2018, even if you lost that Draft Capital, Burton gives us two shots to have an above average pass-catching TE over the next 4 years instead of just one. A little rich, but with the Opt-Out in 2020 that deal I'm higher on than most.
I think we're pretty similar in the opinion of the Fuller deal. It is extremely rich, but I will debate one point, and that is that he has had one good year. Fuller was drafted in 2014 in the first round and spent two full years as a starting CB putting up decent numbers and getting decent grades. A hip injury and a few off-field things dropped people's opinion of Fuller in 2016 far below where it was, but then he came back in a big way and had his best career year in 2017. I think even if the Bears get the 2015 version of Kyle Fuller as a prime aged, prime position, and former First Round player, I feel that the Bears will get a decent ROI on this contract.
Here's a graph on Fuller from 2015. In 2015 Fuller ranked 4th among all corners in Yards per Coverage Snap and Coverage Snaps per Reception.
Fuller Yards Per Coverage Snap 2015
So the Fuller deal is rich, but one good year really isn't fair. He's been a clear-cut Cornerback 1 in both 2015 and 2017, and was hurt and didn't play at all in 2016. For a guy who entered the league as a first round pick in 2014, this is not a terrible career. Again, I think that 2016 dropped Fuller's stock a lot and made people forget about 2015. But he didn't even suck in 2016-- he just didn't play.
In terms of Sitton, releasing Sitton is what makes me think the Bears are definitely going after Nelson. They already have committed long term money to oft-injured Kyle Long and re-signed 3rd Guard Bradley Sowell. I think the Sowell re-signing in particular says that the Bears were done with Sitton for the price, and felt that they were going to get someone else in there, hopefully Nelson, to bridge that gap. In a perfect world I would've loved to hold on to Sitton too, but I don't know what moves clearing Sitton's 8 Mill allowed us to make, so I can't say too much definitively. The Bears seem fine starting Sowell if absolutely necessary and having him as a confident 3rd Guard regardless. I'm hoping we just get Nelson.
So again, I do understand why you highlighted the moves you did. I definitely think they have question marks. Overall though, I will be clear that my grading of an A is highly leaning on not the Personnel we brought in at Skilled positions or on the field, but rather the signing of Nagy, his staff, and the retaining of an excellent DC through the regime change in Vic Fangio.
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